Developing New Leadership?

Off the bottom, after a major correction or bear market, it is natural to play the more liquid names that may have led the previous cycle. This has worked but many are extended and some consolidation/re-set may be next. From here, my focus is to see if newer leadership names start to become accumulated. That is where I want to be positioned if we are able to truly start a more defined uptrend. The general composition are small/mid-cap companies that IPO’d near the end of the previous bull run or during the bear market. I think the sweet spot are companies under five years old, post six-month lockup period, and beginning their initial advance. My goal is to try to stay focused in this bucket while tactically playing select liquid names if they set up again. Over the next week or two many have earnings reports that could potentially provide “change of character” catalysts that put them more “in play” for my style.

In a perfect world, we would get further pullback or consolidation here to embolden the bears and create fresh opportunities. After a strong run, with a CPI report Tuesday, interest rates firming up, and many of these young names at key junctures with earnings reports I am studying this select list of names but being patient to see the reactions to their reports.

QQQ Weekly- After four strong up weeks we put in an inside week holding the Daily 20EMA on all three indexes. The more consolidation and basing in this areas the better. The 10 Week moving average crossed up through the 20 Week moving average last week as a sign the market is continuing its transition from a chop tape to a more convincing uptrend (hopefully). We are at the 50 Week SMA so any basing action above the 10/20 Week EMA could build cause to push us through this 310-312 area. As long as we stay above the 10/20 Week EMA I am optimistic on this market (288-292ish area).

TNX Weekly- 10 Year Yield pushing out of this weekly bull pennant. Strong rates/dollar has been a headwind for equities so we will see if that continues to be the case. 3.9% is the first resistance level. The trend is strong here and CPI will likely effect whether we really push out and follow through here or not.

OIH Monthly- Oil stocks appear ready to make another move. The services and specifically SLB look best to me.

CRDO Weekly- Leading new name three weeks up from its breakout and showing no signs of slowing down. Viewing pullbacks as opportunities as of now.

ALGM Weekly- Exploding to new highs on its earnings report. This looks like a key focus stock. Potentially short term extended but expect it to find support on any pullbacks.

IOT Weekly-Two higher lows on the weekly as it builds the power to push out of this developing double bottom. Earnings 3/2.

NVDA Weekly- Ripped off the higher low out of the inverted head and shoulders bottom. Rejected at resistance and left an unfilled gap down Friday. With earnings February 22nd would like to see it consolidate between 200-230 to potentially set up a new opportunity in time. Patience here for me as it might need a re-set.

TSLA Weekly- Strong move off the lows and now pulling back after running into this major resistance level. Structurally, TSLA remains in a weekly downtrend. The hourly still shows higher highs and higher lows but putting in an evening star Friday. Being patient here to see if it can consolidate at these levels. Notice how the 50 Week/200 Daily SMA has been a key area of interest historically.

UBER Weekly-Attempting to breakout on its earnings report last week but then pulled back down on the LYFT report. This 34.50 area is the major level to flip bigger picture.

UBER Daily-If anything, we learned UBER is the dominant player and LYFT is likely headed to the woodshed. However, short term the gap down and dark cloud cover candle are in control. Supportive action at the rising moving averages is what I want to see to show institutions are buying that recent earnings report.

TOST Weekly-Light volume inside week. Game changing product with an earnings report this week. The reaction will be telling based on where we are on this chart. (Earnings Thursday 2/16) Love the story, the potential of the chart, but it needs the heavy volume “change of character.”

FTNT Weekly- Clearing this weekly trendline on earnings with heavy volume. Bull flagging on the daily chart currently.

LTH Weekly-Consolidation after a strong advance off the lows. Found support at the Daily 20EMA Friday. Any basing to let the 10 Week catch up will be constructive.

ESAB Weekly- Leading IPO green 15 of the last 17 weeks. Resting on lighter volume this past week and one to watch for opportunities on dips to me.

BOX Weekly- Strong volume patterns recently as this stock pushes to all-time highs. Light volume pullback this past week and one to keep on your radar.

SMCI Weekly- After building an 11-12 week base if it can tighten up here a little more it might be ready to start a new move.

BE Weekly- Have shown the monthly cup n handle. Reporting strong results this past week. The response was not what you might have expected but if it can tighten/develop under this 26.50 area I have it on my radar.

ARHS Weekly-consolidating at all-time highs to let the 10 week catch up is very healthy. Any sort of handle type formation that builds here could set an attractive buy area.

BROS Weekly-volume blowout on the lows and now building power to potentially push this weekly trendline. Held the daily 20EMA on Friday as it looks to extend through the 50 Week. (Earnings Wednesday 2/22)

ONON Weekly- Strong move off the lows and now pulling back after taking out weekly resistance. Any supportive action into the rising 10/20 week would show a change in charact for this stock.

PWSC Weekly- Strong stock with a four week pullback into the rising 10/20 week. (Earnings Wednesday 2/22)

INTA Weekly- Explosion in volume this past week as it builds the right side of its base. Strong earnings growth the last two quarters. Watching for an opportunity.

JXN Weekly- Three strong weeks up the right side and now consolidating in the turbulence zone. Healthy and welcomed. A few weeks basing here to let the 10 week catch up could really set this up. Consolidation into earnings 2/28 would be ideal.

ABNB Weekly- Continuing to consolidate with major resistance at 130. Paying close attention to earnings this week to see if it ignites a change in character. It’s currently not “in play” for my style. (Earnings Tuesday 2/14)

GFS Monthly-Earnings this week as the monthly continues to consolidate. Looking for that change of character. (Earnings Tuesday 2/14)

STM-extended on the weekly but watching how it chops.

ON-extended on the weekly. Will wait for a down week or two to assess.

ACLS-strong stock. Too stretched from the 10 Week but in time may set up again.

ELF-monster response to earnings that may present opportunities on pullbacks.