Fed Raises 25 Bps...Market Doesn't Like It
The Fed raised 25 bps and the market didn’t like it. We were extended into the event so was not surprised by the pull back but it was more severe than expected. I tried to stick with some recent breakouts and gave back most of my week but went home cash. We will see what happens into the end of the week but with where SPY was rejected, IWM sitting right on support, and the persistent poor breath playing defense seems like the right move. Most of the names I focus on remain above their EMAs so will see if they set up short sales or not or will remain cash. Cash is king.
QQQ-Still above the 5EMA so may support itself at any of these moving averages likely going to need time to rebuild even if that happens. Currently a failed breakout with bearish engulfing outside reversal.
SPY- The one bearish spot worked perfectly. Rejected at the back-test of the rising channel, descending trendline from the top, and the 50SMA. We closed below the 20EMA+200SMA. If we follow through down here this could be a good index short with a tight stop. Losing 388.50 is a more defined break of higher lows on the 65 Min.
IWM- Following through down on the 10EMA shooting star. If we lose this 170 support level the potential support hold is off the table. Next support would be 162 and without much to look to if we lost that level.
TSLA- Rejecting at the gap resistance after yesterday’s Wedge Pop Buy Signal. Still on a buy signal so could hold these EMAs if it backtests tomorrow but playing defense seemed like the way to go. Will re-assess if wrong.
ABNB-Similar situation to TSLA in that it has not violated yesterday’s low. Will re-assess if it holds support.
30 Year Bonds- This a concerning look with bonds bull flagging under a breakout level. If there is a flight to Treasuries its a risk off sign.
GLD-Slow moving so may be better opportunities but bull flagging here.
NFLX- The one name from my core watchlist that triggered a new short sale today. Worth watching for follow through or just sitting out.
