Heading into September
Heading into September, my high-level feeling is the market is healthy, beginning to broaden out, and has the potential to improve dramatically with a little consolidation. We just had a strong move to finish August and many of the names I am tracking could use a week or two, preferably three, of consolidation to set up really nice bases. My goal with this post is to define a watchlist to groom, stay focused on, and find opportunities over the next few weeks if we can consolidate/rest on low volume. There are about 20 stocks here. I already own some of them but if can establish core size in 7-8 of them, assuming my positive outlook plays out, that will be a success.
QQQ Weekly-Pulling back and supporting at the 20EMA with a strong bounce the last few weeks.
QQQ Daily-Some natural rest at this gap resistance. Watching for an EMA Crossback to develop at some point. The 10/20EMA, 50SMA are below in the 372 area.
SPY Weekly-Natural pullback at the 460 level and now supporting off the 20EMA. Looks good bigger picture as we build this large cup.
SPY Daily- Triggered a daily up cycle four days ago. The 10EMA pushed through the 20EMA with a rising 50SMA. Watching that level similar to the QQQ.
IWM Weekly-This looks very similar to the SPX Cash playbook we had at 4100/4200. We have consistently been pulling back at the 200 Level…..but what do we see? SHALLOWER retreats off resistance. Are sellers starting to run out of gas as the SPX sellers did a few months back? That is what it is starting to look like to me.
SPX CASH Weekly-Decided to show our SPX Cash map to review. We expanded through 4100/4200 and hit the 4600 target. Now we are supporting at the 20 Week EMA and building a new consolidation. If this can build out I expect the next move to be to all-time highs. Losing the 20 Week and I would have to re-assess.
NASI Daily-RSI Crossing back up from red territory, MACD starting to curl but most importantly NASI went black and then got confirmation over the 10EMA. This is a secondary indicator and sometimes coming out of corrections can chop around/consolidate but it is a tailwind type indicator in the current position.
10 Year Yield-We back-tested the 4.1% level I showed on twitter and found support. I am not really sure what this means. Would prefer to see rates consolidate as they have the last year. Objectively, this remains a pause in an uptrend.
WTI Crude Weekly-Clearing out of a weekly bottoming base. Many oil stocks are re-confirming higher after starting uptrends in July.
AAPL Weekly- Building a new base after a strong move YTD.
MSFT Weekly- Looking like a handle on the weekly chart after consolidating this pullback from all-time highs. Holding the 20 Week EMA is very positive to me.
NVDA Weekly- Inside week last week as we consolidate some of the distribution off earnings. I showed a comparison to TSLA from April of 2020 on twitter. If something similar played out it based for another 2-3 weeks and touched daily 20EMA twice more.
CELH Weekly-Arguably the strongest growth stock in the market. Short term extended but would be a focus on any pullback.
VRT Weekly-A picks and shovels play on the NVDA move. Strong two week move out of this weekly bull flag and short term extended but would be a focus on any constructive pullback.
IONQ Weekly- Clearing this weekly bull flag after holding the 20 Week moving average. Short term extended on the daily chart if looking for a new entry but with a few days of tightening could setup a new buy/add area.
SMCI Weekly- This was 140% extended from the 200SMA heading into earnings and had a second extension on the weekly (usually leads to a re-basing period). It had more distribution than would like to have seen but open minded this could be putting in the bottom of a new base here. (The snap backs in ELF BLDR effect my thought process). The weekly continues to shower higher highs and high lows.
ANET Weekly-Choppy stock that will use as a tell but it is a play on the AI theme that continues to push all-time highs.
CVNA Weekly- Strong move this past week after triggering a daily buy area. Stepping out can see a huge weekly inverse head and shoulders bottom. With a few days rest may setup a new buy/add area around the 51/52 level.
FSLY Weekly- Strong move, extended on the daily. On the watchlist.
ELF Weekly- One of the strongest stocks all year. Looked like it had started to distribute but supported at the 10 Week. Watching for a Crossback on the daily.
BLDR Weekly-Shakeout but supporting at the 20 Week. If the daily can tighten up again on my watchlist.
IOT Weekly- Explosive move on earnings this past week after turning profitable.
PDD Weekly-Pushing higher on volume after reporting strong earnings. With some backing and filling will watch for an entry on the daily timeframe.
LI Weekly-Have shown the cup it is building on the 195 Min timeframe on twitter. If this can continue to develop we are setting up right under all-time highs.
RIVN Weekly-Volume came into the stock off the 20 Week EMA and it now has a higher low. If you look at the quarterly vehicle sales this is well ahead of TSLA at this point in the company’s life cycle (which is to be expected as TSLA has paved the way). Think this is a developing fundamental story that could be in the process of bottoming.
CPNG Weekly- Was triple inside on the weekly mid-week and went outside. The second largest position for Stanley Druckenmiller, behind NVDA, at 12.5%. The one downside is it has an extremely large float and seems to move slowly.
STRL Weekly-Bull flagging after reporting strong earnings.
FN Weekly-Explosive move to new highs on earnings and now developing a consolidation on the daily time frame.
SPLK Weekly- Strong earnings growth driving this stock higher post-report. Extended in the short term on the daily time frame but a focus on pullbacks or a new basing pattern.
ABNB Weekly-Back-testing the $130 level and the 20 Week EMA. Clearing the 20 day EMA and announced Friday after the close it is being added to the SPX-500.
DUOL Weekly-Cup n handle in a younger IPO comany.
XLE Weekly- Energy stocks have always been difficult for me but starting an advance in early July and looking like, as a sector, they are set to make new highs.
PSX Weekly-This refiner stock broke out in July, consolidated, and broke out on the daily timeframe again Friday.
Other Names Tracking
LLY APP ESTC AEHR AFRM DLO SNPS ANF ARRY FRSH KD PANW ORCL RELY UBER WDAY YETI…..so many quality looking oil stocks…PXD SLB LNG etc
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