Holding Weekly Moving Averages

On the daily extension February 2nd, I thought we were a little bit ahead of ourselves at 4-5% above the Daily 10EMA. That is a level that has signaled cooling off/basing in the past. On 2/16, 2/17 we had a Wedge Drop to confirm the index was likely going to fall into a deeper pullback. The thought was that we were in a daily timeframe correction within a weekly up cycle. The last two weeks we oscillated between the Daily 10/20EMA and the Daily 200SMA (Weekly 20EMA), scummed lower Thursday, and then followed through Friday triggering a Wedge Pop back through the Daily EMAs. Additionally, despite my thoughts, I got negative on the lows. This has been a REALLY STRONG indicator for me in the past.

More important than all the index technical action was the individual stock action that took place during this consolidation phase. In previous downtrends, over the last year and a half, we saw mass distribution across most growth sectors through those distributive phases. The past month we saw major divergences and positive action in individual stocks, specifically in the small/mid cap space. This has my ears perked up as it feels like we are operating in a much different environment than the last few years.

There are so many good-looking stocks I could list 50-100 names. I more prefer larger capp-ish type stuff even though I see so many explosive names outside of that. That is great to recognize. Below are some names I am involved in or keeping an eye on as they build out. In a healthier environment, I expect extended names to properly consolidate and new names to come on our radar as we go. There are many IPOs still developing the rights sides of Stage 1 bases. Not chasing, being patient for proper buy areas, and holding vs the 10/20EMA Daily and letting trades play out (my strategy) is the name of the game.

QQQ Weekly- Wedge Pop the week of 1/23 with an EMA Crossback this past week and support on the 20 Week EMA. Positive action. After a month of basing, we could have the power to attack this 310-312ish level with greater force.

QQQ Daily- Treating the scum as the Exhaustion Extension ending the down cycle and Friday’s Wedge Pop as triggering a new daily up cycle.

SPY Daily- Drew these lines/potential setup a few weeks ago to show what thought needed to happen to turn the market back higher. It didn’t play out exactly how I thought but this is the general idea. Consolidate in some way, flatten the moving averages, and then take them back out as the long signal. The scum action allowed some anticipation for the Friday follow through.

NVDA Weekly- We are about 12-15% above the 10 Week but that is partially due to the monster gap up on earnings. Strongest big cap in the market. If the indexe go higher expect this to continue.

NVDA Daily- Saw the potential for this to be a 2nd extension. In hindsight, the relative strength compared to the index made that a foolish thought. Always wait for confirmation! I took this long again on support of the 10EMA. It followed through Friday and will use Friday’s low/10 day as the stop.

NVDA 65 Min- Broke out of a mini base off the 10 Day at 228.50. Shown below.

TSLA Weekly- Four weeks of tight consolidation above the 20 Week. Need to hold above this 186-190 area or could break back down. Big volume on the move off the lows.

TSLA Daily- Triggered the 20EMA Shakeout Friday but resisted at the 10EMA and showed sluggish action into the bell. Trading this vs the Daily 20EMA/Friday’s low currently.

TSLA 65 MIN- Pre-event we saw all sell side volume in this consolidation pattern. Since the event we’ve seen heavy volume to the upside each open. I see short term lower highs with support around the 190 shelf. The KEY short term upside levels for me are 200.48 (Friday’s high/10 Day) and 202.77 (the unfilled gap). Ideally, we can see a higher low build into the 20EMA and then attack that 200.48 to change the structure from a downtrend to an uptrend on the 65 Min. Filling this gap at 202.77 is KEY. We lose Friday’s low at 192.88 will wait for a new pattern/structure to build.

MELI Weekly- Clearing this weekly bull flag last week after a strong earnings report the previous Friday. 1230, 1285, and 1365 the weekly levels.

MELI Daily- Wedge Pop on earnings with a Crossback currently taking place. Down on very light volume all day Friday with a heavy volume last hour close. Looking for upside follow through above 1230 this coming week.

FSLR Weekly- Monster breakout on HUGE VOLUME and VOLUME=PRICE. If you go study the monthly you will see as solars corrected this traded with very light volume the month of February. After good earnings and guidance of $7-8 vs $4.50 expected this looks like the premier solar stock. Short term extended but expect dips to be bought.

ABNB Daily- Two weeks of consolidation since its earnings report. Holding the 20EMA this week but lacking upside “juice.” Started this long Friday and would add through $126 area. Like to see some volume come into the stock if we take that level. Would re-assess if lost Friday’s low/20EMA area.

ABNB 65 MIN- Scummed down showing no sellers on the lows but still consolidating with a lack of volume/aggressiveness from buyers. Through 126/126.38 puts in a higher high for this timeframe. The Weekly $130 level is still what opens this up to me.

UBER Weekly- Four week bull flag after clearing the weekly trendline.

UBER Daily- Triggering a Wedge Pop back through the moving averages Friday. 35ish and 36.75 the next levels.

ALGM Daily- Extended from the 10 Week but one of the leading stocks in the semi space and held the 20EMA on the lows Thursday. With SMH triggering a Wedge Pop through 242.50 felt it was worth an attempt. Next SMH level at 245.16.

AI Daily-Explosion on huge volume Friday triggering a Wedge Pop. With 25% short interest and only 35% of the float owned by funds it’s certainly a stock to watch. Currently, still unprofitable BUT management owns 29% of the company still. Worth reviewing.

AYX Weekly- Cupping on the weekly under this $70 level with heavy volume on an earnings report that showed 367% earnings growth.

AYX Daily- Supporting on the 20EMA with strong volume follow through Friday. $68.25 and $70 the next key levels.

PGNY Weekly- Highest weekly volume EVER on its earnings report this past week. Like the angles here if we can rest and then take out this weekly trendline. Decelerating earnings but I have a larger thesis/theme that, if played out, would turn that. May go into it again (talked about late 2020) if sets up.

PGNY Daily- Monster gap on huge volume. Light volume rest since. Looking for supportive action or a pattern to build as the moving averages catch up to price.

BE Monthly- Large monthly cup n handle. May never setup/work but will track it until it fails as the potential IF it works could be huge.

BE Weekly- Still bull flagging and building under this $26.50 level.

BE Daily- Channeling down into the 200SMA. If got some tight trade to start the week looking for a Wedge Pop buy area to build under this $23 level. Any consolidation between $21 (200SMA) and $23 could build a spot.

Not focus sectors for me but great action in materials, metals and mining, and oils still look attractive. If step out and look at the weeklies they might just be getting ready to really get going. Participation is broad and really all about trading a strategy and playing the ideas comfortable with.

XLB-Materials

XME-Metals and Mining

AXON Daily- Strong breakout on volume. Worth reviewing.

ARRY Weekly- Continues to build higher lows into the 200SMA/20 Week EMA. FSLR is the leader but would be good to see other solars breakout.

PCOR Weekly- Short term extended on the weekly but structurally this could still be in the early innings. On watchlist. Love this product.

PCOR Daily- Gap down bought up Friday as the 20EMA catches up to price. Worth reviewing.

IOT Weekly- Have followed this stock since before its IPO. Clearing the major $18 level on earnings this past week on huge volume. Short term extended but think worth keeping on watchlist to see how it rests here.

LNTH Weekly- Resting nicely this past week. Continuing to keep on my watchlist and wait for the moving averages to catch up to price.

Names to Review: SQ AMD CFLT RBLX SPOT TMDX MNDY CRWD NET COIN SCCO PATH AA ON CLF Z SMAR STLD WYNN FCX FTNT PANW LVS WYNN ACLS RMBS AMAT LRCX CROX CRM SLB HAL

Other IPOs Building Right Side: NRDS DUOL INTA ARHS LTH JXN INDI ZETA MAXN GTLB AGL SRAD BOWL BSY GFS GLBE DV RRX ONON ESAB PAYO SHLS