Support Held in a Week of Consolidation
The market continues to hold support and I have always been taught that as long as support holds you want to remain long biased. With that said, this 4100/4200 level on the SPX is the major level going back to May of 2022. Consolidation to take it out should be expected so patience here is key. A concern I have from last week is the weakness we started to see in semiconductors. Semis have been the key sector to watch for leadership up and down. I will be watching them for guidance. Secondly, I think we need some other tech/growth participation outside of the big caps if we are going to build that next higher-level range. It was good to see those growth type names that shook out their 20EMAs hold their 50SMAs on Friday. That could be a sign that they need additional time/basing to make another attempt at breaking out vs breaking down. I show the chart of the IWO to better display the chop action in growth and to see the environment we are in with growth….a directionless one.
I am going to show some weeklies in addition to the dailies so I can reference them during the week. Many are stretched into important levels. Big tech continues to be the main area of focus as they trend higher. Remaining focused on 10/20EMA spots on select big tech names but patience is the main reaction I have to reviewing my watchlists.
QQQ Weekly-Inside week on lighter volume after three strong weeks.
QQQ-Strong action Friday with a new short-term line in the sand at Friday’s low. $321.63 is the top of this range if we can follow through.
SPX Weekly-Consolidation to build power is to be expected. Getting through this 4100/4200 level is a big deal to me. To see both sides of the trade…..we still have a potential head and shoulders-ish pattern with 12/12 week as the left shoulder, 1/30 as the head, and this past weeks doji as a potential right shoulder.
IWO Weekly-Will watch this Russell 2000 Growth instead of ARKK. Large symmetrical triangle starting in April of 2022. Inside the pattern I have a descending channel starting in February with a shorter-term potential bear flag the last 3/4 weeks. CHOP CHOP CHOP. Which way does this year long symmetrical triangle break? Its debatably the most important pattern for growth traders and is telling us, currently, growth stocks are CHOPPING around and building power for direction one way or the other. Patiently waiting to see how this pattern resolves.
SMH-Lagging this past Friday. Showing higher lows so nothing structurally alarming but would like to see them hold above this 50SMA (green) as this pullback takes shape.
MSFT-Pulled into the 10 day on the open and then took off. Continues to trend higher.
MSFT Weekly-$294 lines up with SPX 4200 to me. Any rest here would be normal but taking this level out would open things up to the next level at $316.
AAPL-Held the 10 day on the open and headed higher. Still just an inside day.
AAPL Weekly- Approaching the descending channel line that has checked price through the bear market. This trendline is synonymous to SPX 4200 to me.
GOOG-Breaking out of the cup n handle pattern on good volume. Looks good as long as holds the line. I was looking for support longs vs breakouts and missed this. Frustrating and shows can never have an opinion. Trade the price action.
GOOG 10 Min-There were two nice entries. I saw the first one on the 4th bar but didn’t pull the trigger!!! We stayed positive, held the 10 Min 20EMA, and broke out while also recapturing the VWAP. It was showing relative strength to the rest of big tech too. The second entry was up around R1 and was actually at yesterday’s high so a clean spot. Did not see this.
GOOG Weekly-Lagging MSFT/AAPL but clearing the 50 Week this past week. Friday’s highs were checked at the AVWAP from the 2/2/2022 high. If we can take that out we can establish a new range up to $123.25.
NVDA-Holding the gap again Friday and another potential higher low. Continues to act well but stretched.
NVDA Weekly-No surprise to see a consolidation week at this $280ish level. We have reached the inverted head and shoulders target area. A few weeks rest would be great but may not happen. If we took out this 280/290 area a new range would be built into the highs.
AMD Weekly-Resting/pulling back to the 10 Week after checking this key level in the 102/105 range. Watching for a setup to build on the daily timeframe as we pull back. It may take a few weeks.
NFLX-Held my spot perfectly on the back-test of the 50SMA. Now watching for follow through out of this flag pattern as the next buy/add area. Friday’s high is $340.48.
NFLX Weekly-Light volume doji last week. I show a “potential” head and shoulders so would like to see us take out the highs of that doji.
TSLA-Held the AVWAP from the lows but lost important AVWAPs, the EMAs, and has two unfilled gaps above. Holding this area would be great in building out a larger pattern but think it needs time as it consolidates.
TSLA Weekly-With so much emotion present on the daily we can see on the weekly this is consolidating between $160-210/215. Nothing wrong with that. Patience as it chops around in the range.
LNTH-Continuing to rest under $84. Takes that out and may make a run for all-time highs.
ONON-First pullback to the 20EMA area since the buyable gap up. Watching this bull flag for follow through or for support into the 20EMA.
IOT Weekly-Shook out on the daily last week but the weekly remains very healthy as it continues to build its pattern under $20.22. Shakeouts that recover setup even better bigger picture patterns.
PATH-Holding the 20EMA on this pullback as it continues to consolidate and set up this $18 area. It could be worth a shot on follow through of the Friday high to push off the bottom of this range. Getting through the $18 area is where it really breaks out.
XLE-Continuing to track energy stocks. XOM COP HES. We are gapping into a lower high position currently but basing out that move. Do we roll over and put in another lower high? OR, do we consolidate/base and setup the trade for a breakout higher? I have no interest in the short but will watch how this builds to see if it sets up long or not.
